Murdoch University Research Repository

Welcome to the Murdoch University Research Repository

The Murdoch University Research Repository is an open access digital collection of research
created by Murdoch University staff, researchers and postgraduate students.

Learn more

Seasonal and year-round distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and its risk to temperate fruits under climate change

Dong, Z., He, Y., Ren, Y., Wang, G.ORCID: 0000-0002-5258-0532 and Chu, D. (2022) Seasonal and year-round distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and its risk to temperate fruits under climate change. Insects, 13 (6). Article 550.

PDF - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (1MB) | Preview
Free to read:
*No subscription required


Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) is an important pest to fruits and vegetables. It can damage more than 300 plant species. The distribution of B. dorsalis has been expanding owing to international trade and other human activities. B. dorsalis occurrence is strongly related to suitable overwintering conditions and distribution areas, but it is unclear where these seasonal and year-round suitable areas are. We used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to predict the potential seasonal and year-round distribution areas of B. dorsalis. We also projected suitable habitat areas in 2040 and 2060 under global warming scenarios, such as SSP126 and SSP585. These models achieved AUC values of 0.860 and 0.956 for the seasonal and year-round scenarios, respectively, indicating their good prediction capabilities. The precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2) contributed 83.9% to the seasonal distribution prediction model. Bio2 and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) provided important information related to the year-round distribution prediction. In future scenarios, the suitable area of B. dorsalis will increase and the range will expand northward. Four important temperate fruits, namely, apples, peaches, pears, and oranges, will be seriously threatened. The information from this study provides a useful reference for implementing improved population management strategies for B. dorsalis.

Item Type: Journal Article
Murdoch Affiliation(s): Agricultural Sciences
Publisher: MDPI
Copyright: © 2022 by the authors
United Nations SDGs: Goal 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
Item Control Page Item Control Page


Downloads per month over past year