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Simple models of massive epidemics of herpesvirus in Australian (and New Zealand) pilchards

Murray, A.G., O'Callaghan, M. and Jones, B.ORCID: 0000-0002-0773-2007 (1999) Simple models of massive epidemics of herpesvirus in Australian (and New Zealand) pilchards. In: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM'99), 6 - 9 December 1999, University of Waikato, New Zealand

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Abstract

In March 1995 a mass mortality of pilchard started to occur in South Australia; this spread very rapidly throughout the Australian pilchard's range, later reaching New Zealand. In November 1998 a si1nilar mass 1norta1ity broke out in South Australia and also spread, at a slower rate, throughout the Australian range. The mortality appeared to be caused by a herpesvirus. The mortality spread as a classical epidemic front, but its speed of progress and the brief duration of mortalities at a given location are extreme. We apply simple epidemic 1nodelling techniques, SIR and SEIR modelling, to exa1nine the factors behind the spread of this mortality and the differences between the 1995 and 1998/9 epidemics. We discuss biological factors influencing the critical processes of long-distance (D) and local (β) transmission of infection.

Item Type: Conference Paper
Conference Website: https://www.mssanz.org.au/MODSIM99/papers.htm
URI: http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/42905
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