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Validation of a Simple Steady-State Forecast of Minimum Nocturnal Temperatures

Kala, J.ORCID: 0000-0001-9338-2965, Lyons, T.J., Foster, I.J. and Nair, U.S. (2009) Validation of a Simple Steady-State Forecast of Minimum Nocturnal Temperatures. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 48 (3). pp. 624-633.

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A two-layer steady-state resistance model is compared with routine meteorological data collected from the Western Australian wheat belt during 2000-06. Major difficulties in implementing such a model are the correct parameterization for the incoming longwave radiation and estimation of daily soil moisture, neither of which are routinely measured. These difficulties are addressed by testing parameterizations for incoming longwave radiation calibrated to local conditions and incorporating a soil-water balance model based on routine weather data. The modified model has RMSE and biases ranging from 2.4° to 3.1°C and -0.2° to 0.8°C, respectively, across the wheat belt when comparing all minimum nocturnal temperatures. The model is shown to predict frost events approximately 55% of the time and illustrates that frost damage to foliage may occur when screen temperatures are < 2°C.

Item Type: Journal Article
Murdoch Affiliation(s): School of Environmental Science
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Copyright: © Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Notes: © Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or
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