A Bayesian approach for overcoming inconsistencies in mortality estimates using, as an example, data forAcanthopagrus latus

Hall, N.G., Hesp, S.A. and Potter, I.C. (2004) A Bayesian approach for overcoming inconsistencies in mortality estimates using, as an example, data forAcanthopagrus latus. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 61 (7). pp. 1202-1211.

Abstract

Reliable estimates of natural (M) and total mortality (Z) are essential for effective fisheries management. However, estimates of M, which are frequently determined from life history parameters, are imprecise and often inconsistent with the values of Z derived from life history parameters and other analyses. This is exemplified by the mortality estimates derived for Acanthopagrus latus in a large marine embayment. Thus, such estimates, calculated for M for this population from a growth parameter and from growth parameters and water temperature, were both 0.70·year-1, whereas those for Z, calculated from maximum recorded age, relative abundance analysis, and a simulation based on maximum age and sample size, ranged from 0.18 to 0.30·year-1. These results are clearly inconsistent. A Bayesian approach was therefore developed that combines the posterior probability distributions of the various mortality estimates and thereby produces integrated and consistent estimates for M and Z. The application of our Bayesian approach to the data for A. latus yielded lower values for M than for Z. Our approach is equally applicable to other fish species.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Murdoch Affiliation(s):	Centre for Fish and Fisheries Research School of Biological Sciences and Biotechnology
Publisher:	National Research Council of Canada
URI:	http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/16539

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