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Modeling intra-daily implied volatility in forecasting options price

Hoque, A. (2012) Modeling intra-daily implied volatility in forecasting options price. In: Proceedings of Annual Paris Business and Social Sciences Conference, 12 - 13 July, Paris, France

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Abstract

In this paper, we introduce intra-daily implied volatility (IDIV) model based on volatility is implied from options price at intra-daily level. We investigate whether the IDIV forecasts currency options price more accurately than standard estimates of volatility. The implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) are widely accepted as good estimates of daily and intra-daily price volatility, respectively. Therefore, using the options pricing framework, we assess the capability of IDIV against IV and RV in forecasting currency options price. The comparison of out-of-sample forecasts under both the F-test and Diebold-Mariano test reveals that the IDIV outperforms both the IV and the RV to forecast one-day-ahead options price.

Publication Type: Conference Paper
Murdoch Affiliation: Murdoch Business School
URI: http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/39340
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