Changing frost conditions in south-west Western Australia
Frost presents a substantial risk to grain production and quality in south-west Western Australia (SWWA), with screen temperatures below 2°C posing significant risk of frost-damage to the foliage (Kala et al. 2008). Such damage is associated with calm, clear nights as well as local orographic effects. Thus a mesoscale meteorological model (The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS 6.0) (Pielke et al. 1992)) has been used to assess the intensity and severity of frost events within the agricultural region of SWWA under current and future climate scenarios.
RAMS initialisation and boundary conditions were set by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996) for current climatic conditions and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global circulation model (CM 2.1) (Delworth et al. 2006), noted for its ability to simulate minimum temperatures over Australia (Perkins et al. 2007), for future climate simulations. The current climate simulations were validated against an extensive network of meteorological stations across SWWA and current probabilities of frost computed over the agricultural region. Changes in the frequency and probability of frost are compared with the meteorological changes associated with the predicted warming throughout SWWA.
|Publication Type:||Conference Item|
|Murdoch Affiliation:||School of Environmental Science|
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