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Current and future distributions of maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation for the agricultural region of southwest Western Australia.

Kala, J., Lyons, T.J., Abbs, D.J. and Foster, I.J. (2010) Current and future distributions of maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation for the agricultural region of southwest Western Australia. In: 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 13 - 15 October, Hobart, Tasmania.

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Abstract

Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the wheat-belt of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 9 years of the climate of SWWA at a 10 Km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the CSIRO Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 9 years (2047-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 10 Km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA.

Publication Type: Conference Item
Murdoch Affiliation: School of Environmental Science
Conference Website: http://www.bom.gov.au/events/anzcf2010/
URI: http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/3768
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