Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion in the northwest of Australia

Lyons, T.J. and Joyce, C. C. (1983) Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion in the northwest of Australia. Archives for Meteorology, Geophysics, and Bioclimatology Series B, 32 (2-3). pp. 201-218.

Abstract

Statistical models based on persistence and climatology are used to forecast tropical cyclone tracks off the northwest coast of Australia. A comparison based on the 1980-81 season shows that a first order least squares fit of the eight primary predictors has a higher level of statistical significance and comparable mean forecast errors to predictions based on higher order regression equations.