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Combining inferential and deductive approaches to estimate the potential geographical range of the invasive plant pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum

Ireland, K.B., Hardy, G.E.S.J. and Kriticos, D.J. (2013) Combining inferential and deductive approaches to estimate the potential geographical range of the invasive plant pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum. PLoS ONE, 8 (5). e63508.

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Link to Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0063508
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Abstract

Phytophthora ramorum, an invasive plant pathogen of unknown origin, causes considerable and widespread damage in plant industries and natural ecosystems of the USA and Europe. Estimating the potential geographical range of P. ramorum has been complicated by a lack of biological and geographical data with which to calibrate climatic models. Previous attempts to do so, using either invaded range data or surrogate species approaches, have delivered varying results. A simulation model was developed using CLIMEX to estimate the global climate suitability patterns for establishment of P. ramorum. Growth requirements and stress response parameters were derived from ecophysiological laboratory observations and site-level transmission and disease factors related to climate data in the field. Geographical distribution data from the USA (California and Oregon) and Norway were reserved from model-fitting and used to validate the models. The model suggests that the invasion of P. ramorum in both North America and Europe is still in its infancy and that it is presently occupying a small fraction of its potential range. Phytophthora ramorum appears to be climatically suited to large areas of Africa, Australasia and South America, where it could cause biodiversity and economic losses in plant industries and natural ecosystems with susceptible hosts if introduced.

Publication Type: Journal Article
Murdoch Affiliation: Centre for Phytophthora Science and Management
School of Veterinary and Life Sciences
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Copyright: © 2013 Ireland et al.
Notes: This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
URI: http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/15262
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